Valuenotes Connect – June 2015

ValueNotes Connect
Welcome to the June issue of ValueNotes Connect.

Right until early 2007, economists and analysts across the world believed that the global economy was inherently stable, healthy and on a growth path. The financial crisis soon unravelled – subprime mortgages collapsed in the summer of 2007, world stock markets sharply fell in January of 2008, and crude oil prices peaked to a record high of $145 later that year. Just a handful of analysts predicted the crisis; the others got their “market forecasts” grossly wrong.

For businesses of all kinds, what matters is the future. As a result, competitive and market intelligence analysts are routinely tasked with forecasting market growth. Very often, business plans are built on such forecasts. But if you ask the users of these estimates, there is more than a healthy skepticism. After all, who can predict the future? Arun Jethmalani tells us there is one common failing that he’s seen with most of the forecasts – regardless of the models or methods used for market sizing and forecasting. And that arises from the simple straight-line extrapolation of the very recent past.

Trying to be prepared for the future invariably assumes that we must have some inkling of what’s in store. Apart from detailed forecasting exercises, it’s important to read and understand early warning signals. In her article, Varsha Chitale explains how even the weakest of signals can help analysts anticipate the future.

Interestingly, many believe that big data is the way out. Powerful algorithms will now crunch their way through masses of data and predict how markets and prices might evolve – helping businesses make better marketing decisions, acquire more customers, improve profitability and beat the pants off competition. Arun tells us whether this is real or plain hype.

We hope you enjoy reading our newsletter, and as always, we look forward to your comments.

Best regards.

Forecasting market growth and the recency effect
by Arun Jethmalani
Forecasting market growth For businesses of all kinds, yesterday’s success is history. What matters is the future. As a result, competitive and market intelligence analysts are tasked with forecasting market growth. Business plans are often built on such forecasts. But if you ask the users of these estimates, there is more than a healthy skepticism. After all, who can predict the future?
more>>
The future is already here – can you read the signals?
by Varsha Chitale
future is already here All new trends and macro changes in technology, society, and the economy start with small shifts in opinion or behavior. Weak signals are of tremendous value to CI analysts as they allow them to anticipate what the future will be and hence caution the organization to proactively prepare for it. The company that recognizes the trend first, stands to gain an advantage over its competitors.
more>>
Data, data, everywhere… only a drop of insight
by Arun Jethmalani
Big data analytics These days it appears next to impossible to ignore big data and analytics. Big data is the next big thing, and analytics will provide answers to all our problems. When we’re stumped, big data will tell us what to do! We will make better marketing decisions, acquire more customers, improve profitability and beat the pants off competition. Is this real, or hype?
more>>
Case studies
Commissioned research
Some client problems we have solved:
  • Technology forecasting report on the metal cutting & metal forming industries
  • Market sizing of the plastic pipes industry in India
  • Market sizing study of the positive displacement blowers market
  • Opportunity assessment study of the power & energy services market
  • Market sizing of commercial vehicles used by parcel courier express providers
  • Market assessment for IV Lines & catheters in Russia, Turkey & Poland
Do get in touch with us on email – research@valuenotes.co.in
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